The National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) Research Center said on Monday that a methodological error in a preliminary report on fall 2024 college enrollments skewed findings on freshmen figures and dual enrollments.
The report released in October cited an overall -5% decrease in freshmen enrollments last fall based on data collected at the time from half of participating U.S. higher education institutions. Community colleges (public two-year colleges and primarily associate-degree granting baccalaureate institutions) saw freshman enrollment declines of -0.4%, the center said at the time.
However, there was actually an increase in overall freshmen enrollment this fall, the NSC Research Center said in a release on Monday afternoon.
“The error in research methodology caused the mislabeling of certain students as dual-enrolled rather than as freshmen, and as a result, the number of freshmen was undercounted, and the number of dual-enrolled was overcounted,” Doug Shapiro, the center’s executive director, said in the release.
“We deeply regret this error and are conducting a thorough review to understand the root cause and implement measures to prevent such occurrences in the future,” he added.
The error in the methodology only affected data for freshmen and dual-enrolled students, the center said. It did not affect the total number of undergraduate students.
The error also impacted previous reports, but the effect was “magnified this year because more high school students participated in dual enrollment programs,” the center said.
The NSC Researcher Center discovered the error as it worked on its final report on fall 2024 enrollments, which will be released on January 23. The center said the final report is based on data from nearly all participating colleges and uses different methodologies to determine freshman enrollees.
The retraction prompted a response from the U.S. Education Department.
“We are encouraged and relieved that updated data from the National Student Clearinghouse shows freshman enrollment is up this school year,” Under Secretary James Kvaal said in a release. “The increase is consistent with what we are seeing on the financial aid side: more than 5% more students are receiving federal aid this year.”
The NSC Research Center created the periodic “Stay Informed” report in summer 2020 to provide early and real-time enrollment information during the Covid pandemic to help the higher education community gauge the pandemic’s effects on enrollments.