Federal law defines an in-demand occupation as one that “currently has or is projected to have” a significant number of jobs. In-demand is one of three routes into Workforce Pell eligibility, alongside high-skill and high-wage.
But many of the state lists that will help determine Workforce Pell eligibility rely on data that looks backward.
Employment data may already be about a year old when a state publishes its list, while long-term projections can be based on staffing patterns several years older. That works reasonably well for stable occupations. It is much less useful when demand comes from a major new project that hasn’t started hiring yet.
Consider what is happening now. AI-driven data center construction is increasing demand for the skilled trades that build those facilities, while also adding demand for the power plants, transmission lines and other infrastructure needed to supply them. Projects already committed for the 2030s will require tradespeople and technicians in numbers today’s pipelines do not produce.
Those projects represent real future workforce demand even though their jobs don’t yet appear in employment counts.
States should be able to treat firmly committed projects as evidence of projected demand rather than waiting for them to show up in historical data. Not every announcement should qualify. A defensible standard could include projects that have passed a meaningful point of commitment, such as receiving a construction permit, securing a signed power purchase agreement, reaching a final investment decision or appearing in an approved integrated resource plan.
That approach doesn’t require a new statute or appropriation. It requires taking the word “projected” seriously.
Community colleges usually take their cue from state lists. This is a moment to lead instead, and leading means two things.
First, don’t wait.
The state lists wait on the staffing data, the data waits on the buildout and the buildout waits on a workforce no one has trained. Someone has to move first, and colleges are the ones who can.
Much of the infrastructure demand ahead, from AI data centers to the power and grid infrastructure behind them, is concentrated in fields community colleges already teach: welding, pipefitting, electrical work and other skilled trades.
Colleges that build short-term, credit-bearing programs before demand appears in the employment data can have instructors, equipment and capacity in place when Workforce Pell eligibility catches up. Colleges that wait risk starting from scratch just as employers begin hiring.
Moving early isn’t easy. It means finding instructors, equipment, space and funding before the state list says those programs are needed. But federal workforce investments can help. September’s $65 million in Strengthening Community Colleges grants went to consortia working to build programs for Workforce Pell and other workforce needs. The colleges that move first can help establish models others follow.
Second, treat Workforce Pell as a credential that can enter a career at any point.
For some students, an eight-to-15-week program can provide the safety training, tools and fundamentals that help them enter a job and begin learning on site. For others, the same type of program can provide a mid-career skill upgrade.
Workforce Pell doesn’t have to be only an entry point.
The placement test asks whether completers are employed, not whether the certificate was their first credential or their last. New York’s guidance, for example, counts students who remain continuously employed in the same job as successful placements. Designed that way, a short-term credential can serve new entrants, upskill existing workers and stack toward licenses, certificates and degrees above it.
A workforce list built on yesterday’s employment data prepares a state for the workforce it already has. Workforce Pell gives states and colleges an opportunity to prepare for the workforce they know they’ll need.
For the decade of infrastructure now on the calendar, projected demand should mean looking at what’s actually being built, not simply extending yesterday’s trend line.
