For the second year in a row, the number of college students “stopping out” before earning a credential has declined. At the same time, the number of students with “some college, no credential” (SCNC) re-enrolling has increased.
Slightly more than 2.1 million people stopped out of college between January 2022 and July 2023. That’s about 156,000 fewer (-6.9%) recent stop-outs compared to the year prior, according to the latest report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
Nearly all higher education institution sectors saw fewer stop-outs during that period, but the decline was really driven by fewer students stopping out from community colleges. At public two-year colleges, 129,000 fewer students (-10.7%) stopped out during the 2022-23 period than the previous year. At primarily associate degree-granting baccalaureate (PAB) institutions, 19,000 fewer students (-8.0%) stopped out.
Despite that good news, the SCNC population is growing, according to the report. There are still nearly 43.1 million American adults stopped out of college without a credential, about 37.6 million of which are considered working age (under age 65). The population of those working-age adults with some college and no credential grew 2.2% in the period ending July 2023.
Of that SCNC population, two-thirds last attended a community college.
The 2.1 million students who were newly stopped out far outpaced those SCNC students re-enrolling in the 2022-23 academic year and the number of those aging out of the working-age population, according to the report.
Re-enrollment and perseverance
During the 2023-24 academic year, more than 1 million SCNC students re-enrolled. That’s a 7.0% increase over the number of re-enrollees during the 2022-23 school year, bringing the overall re-enrollment rate up to 2.7%.
“It is inspiring to see that over one million adults returned to campuses last year—the most we’ve ever recorded,” said Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “They’re reviving college aspirations that had been put on hold years before.
Nearly three in five returning SCNC students re-enroll at a community college. And primarily online institutions account for about 15% of all re-enrollments.
Of those more than 1 million re-enrollees, 47,000 earned their first credential that same year.
More students are persisting, too. Of the 901,000 SCNC students who re-enrolled during the 2022-23 academic year and did not earn a credential that year, nearly 58.7% returned for the 2023-24 school year to continue their studies.
Looking at the demographics, men make up a larger share of the SCNC population, but more women than men re-enroll: 534,000 women re-enrolled in 2022-23 compared to 381,000 men. However, men earned credentials at a slightly higher rate than women (14.3% vs. 13.9%).
In addition, for 2023-24, Black, Hispanic, Asian and Pacific Islander students all saw re-enrollment rates that were higher than those in 2022-23. Perseverance rates rose, too, for those who re-enrolled in 2022-23 compared to those who re-enrolled in 2021-22.
Potential completers persist
The NSC report also takes a look at “potential completers.” These are students who completed at least two years of full-time enrollment prior to stopping out. They are more likely to re-enroll and earn a credential in their first year back or persist into a second year of re-enrollment.
In fact, potential completers re-enroll at rates three or more times higher than non-potential completers (7.2% vs. 2.3% in 2023-24). They earn credentials in their first year back at more than two times the rate of non-potential completer peers (8.4% vs. 2.3%).
And, they persevere and earn credentials in their second year at higher rates than peers with less academic experience prior to stopout.
“These advantages build on each other,” the report says. After two years, 30% of credential earners are potential completers, even though they represent only 7.5% of the SCNC population.
In terms of the types of credentials earned, potential completers tend to earn bachelor’s (36.8%) or associate (42.7%) degrees after re-enrolling. This is likely due to the fact that potential completers have at least two years of full-time enrollment before they stopped out, so they’re further ahead on the degree path.
For non-potential completer re-enrollees who earn a credential, more than half (56.7%) earn a certificate.
Earning credentials without re-enrolling
There’s another group of some college, no credential individuals included in the report: those who earned a credential without re-enrolling.
“Over the past three years, these students – who earn credentials three academic terms or more after their last enrollment – have accounted for roughly a quarter of SCNC students who earn their first credential,” according to the report. That’s 15,000 of 62,000 in 2023-24.
The delayed awarding of these credentials could be due to institutional barriers to graduation, such as forms, fees or other administrative requirements. Or, delayed credentials could be due to academic accommodations. Someone dealing with a health crisis or other big event may receive extended course incompletes.
Reverse Transfer programs also may play a role in this, primarily involving community colleges awarded associate degrees to individuals who transferred and completed required credit hours at their new institution.
Four-year institutions, too, are awarding associate degrees to students who stopped out shy of earning a bachelor’s degree. The report mentions the Colorado Re-Engaged (CORE) initiative which allows for this. While Colorado has the 20th largest SCNC population, it also had the seventh highest number of completers, thanks in part to CORE.
Programs like CORE are “a positive way to address the SCNC population and raise population attainment levels,” the report says.
