America is headed for a labor shortage crisis in the coming years, and we may not even be aware of it.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. employed population is approximately 163.39 million. Comparatively, the total civilian labor force, which comprises the total employed and unemployed, is approximately 168.1 million based on August 2025 data. Published in 2024 by the U.S. Department of Labor, the BLS projects the U.S. economy to add 6.7 million jobs from 2023 to 2033.
This article kicks off a monthly column in CC Daily by Mordecai Ian Brownlee, president of the Community College of Aurora in Colorado.
At first glance, it appears that the U.S. economic outlook is poised for growth and expansion. Especially when paired with the analysis conducted by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which projects the U.S. population to increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million people in 2055. However, within that same analysis, beginning in 2033, the number of annual deaths is expected to exceed the number of annual births.
The decline of high school graduates
Recently, the American Association of Community Colleges‘ board of directors contracted with the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) to produce the “Resilient by Design” report. It discusses the demographic decline among traditionally aged student populations as well as the need for community colleges to prioritize their enrollment strategies, financial models, and program portfolios..
According to a 2024 analysis published by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), the number of high school graduates in the United States is projected to peak this year — followed by a long-term steady decline. Leaving the nation’s class of 2041 will be nearly half a million students fewer than the current year’s graduating class.
Furthermore, according to the 11th edition of Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, compared to 2023, 38 states are projected to see a decline in the number of graduates by 2041. Only 10 states are expected to surpass the national peak in the total number of high school graduates by 2025.
Relying on adult learner growth
While these demographic trends present challenges, they also offer community colleges rich opportunities to reimagine their role to serve as engines of adult reskilling and economic anchors. According to the most recent national assessment conducted by the Community College Research Center, nationally, one in every five community college students is enrolled in dual-credit courses from high school. With roughly 20% of the entire community college enrollment market share, it is clear how critical high school enrollments, whether through dual-credit or concurrent enrollment (depending on state definitions), are to the sector’s sustainability.
For some institutions, such as the Community College of Aurora, where I serve as president, more than 60% of our total college enrollment is associated with our concurrent enrollment pathways. Given the national downward trend in high school graduates, the urgency is high to scan the immediate demographic and industrial markets to determine new, sustainable enrollment opportunities. As institutions like ours evaluate such realities, here are three data-driven resources community colleges can use to inform adult learner strategies and align program portfolios with emerging labor market needs.
- Utilize tools like the “Worker Shortage Across America” interactive map featured by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to gain an awareness of the workforce needs and trends of your particular state.
- Examine datasets like the “Labor Force Statistics Data” compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau to learn workforce trends occurring within the census tracks of the communities your institution serves.
- Employ labor market data, such as the information provided by Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass), to analyze what academic and workforce programs offered by your institution are still relevant in your institution’s market.
Community colleges are vital to the American workforce and central to creating upward economic mobility in our communities. Our role as educators in this sector is not just to teach, but to empower — making sure that every academic or workforce program we offer connects students to meaningful, in-demand and livable-wage careers. I believe this is our ethical and moral duty to those we serve.
